Earthquakes

The media sure seems obsessed lately with earthquakes. Anytime there is an earthquake in the states it makes the news, or if there is any earthquake >6 in magnitude in the world, we hear about it. I'm not used to seeing so much earthquake coverage, and I think it's started to create a little bit of paranoia. I decided to look at earthquake activity over the past 10 years. The data below represents earthquakes greater than 6.0 anywhere in the world. I grouped the data by 12 month intervals, so past year represents April 2009 to April 2010. So each interval starts and ends in April.

Cycle	Average Magnitude	>6	>7	>8
Past Year	6.37	187	14	2
Year +1	6.35	160	9	0
Year +2	6.40	196	18	1
Year +3	6.33	177	10	3
Year +4	6.37	118	10	0
Year +5	6.38	179	14	3
Year +6	6.35	168	11	1
Year +7	6.36	138	12	0
Year +8	6.37	131	11	1
Year +9	6.39	175	14	0

As you can see in the data, there are a whole lot of 6.0 earthquakes every year. On average one every 2 to 3 days. This past year doesn't even have the most of the past decade. We also haven't seen an unusual number with magnitudes greater than 7 or 8, and the average magnitude of all greater than 6 is once again fairly average. What we have seen is an increase in earthquake related casualties, but this is only a factor of where the earthquake strikes. The increased casualties has caused the increased paranoia and coverage. However, the world does not appear to be in any more danger from earthquakes than usual. Actually, that's not entirely true. As the population of the world grows and concentrations of people grow, the chances that an earthquake will hit a densely populated area also grows.

NBA Rookie of the Year

This year's NBA ROY award race has been a good one. Arguments have been made for the top three candidates: Evans, Curry, and Jennings. Evans has been the most consistent, Curry finished the strongest, and Jennings is a vital reason teams have to "Fear the Deer." Not to mention the Bucks are actually in the playoffs and his 55 point explosion at MSG. Of course, I decided to whip up a spreadsheet to make an unbiased determination. Since all the candidates play guard, I decided to take the top rookie seasons (statistically) from the past decade. I created a score based on the stats, the formula is pretty straightforward, and is pretty much just a summation of the stats.

Player	Year	Team	Wins	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	RPG	APG	SPG	TO	PPG	Score
James	2003-04	Cavaliers	35	79	79	39.5	0.417	0.29	0.754	5.5	5.9	1.6	3.5	20.9	34.783
Evans	2009-10	Kings	25	72	72	37.2	0.458	0.255	0.748	5.3	5.8	1.5	3	20.1	34.083
Paul	2005-06	Hornets	38	78	78	36	0.43	0.282	0.847	5.1	7.8	2.2	2.3	16.1	33.577
Francis	1999-00	Rockets	34	77	77	36	0.445	0.345	0.786	5.3	6.6	1.5	4	18	32.128
Curry	2009-10	Warriors	26	80	77	36.2	0.462	0.437	0.885	4.5	5.9	1.9	3.1	17.5	32.052
Rose	2008-09	Bulls	41	81	80	37	0.475	0.222	0.788	3.9	6.3	0.8	2.5	16.8	29.755
Roy	2006-07	Trail Blazers	32	57	55	35.4	0.456	0.377	0.838	4.4	4	1.2	2	16.8	29.413
Jennings	2009-10	Bucks	46	82	82	32.6	0.371	0.374	0.817	3.4	5.7	1.3	2.4	15.5	28.186
Westbrook	2008-09	Thunder	23	82	65	32.6	0.398	0.271	0.815	4.9	5.3	1.3	3.3	15.3	27.952
Wade	2003-04	Heat	42	61	56	34.8	0.465	0.302	0.747	4	4.5	1.4	3.2	16.2	27.442

I don't think anyone is shocked that LeBron tops the list. However, I found it interesting how eerily similar his rookie stats are to Evans. I also found it interesting to see that Curry lined up right there with Stevie Franchise. Jennings, as expected, finished toward the bottom with the non-ROY winners (Westbrook, Wade). I have to give the nod to Evans, the numbers just don't lie, his LeBron-esque season is worth the ROY award. Curry should hold his head high as his rookie campaign was better than that of ROY award winners Roy and Rose. However, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Rose lead his team to the playoffs. On that note, Jennings should be proud that he was instrumental in leading his team into the playoffs even if his numbers fall short in this competition.

For fun, I added a couple other famous guard rookie seasons for comparison. Michael Jordan, Mitch Richmond, and Allen Iverson all won the rookie of the year award.

Jordan	1984-85	Bulls	38	82	82	38.3	0.515	0.173	0.845	6.5	5.9	2.39	3.55	28.2	44.039
Iverson	1996-97	76ers	22	76	74	40.1	0.416	0.341	0.702	4.1	7.5	2.1	4.4	23.5	37.177
Richmond	1988-89	Warriors	43	79	79	34.4	0.468	0.367	0.81	5.9	4.2	1.04	3.41	22	34.665

Both Jordan and Iverson score well ahead of LeBron and Richmond is just barely behind him. However, Richmond put those numbers up on a playoff team, so that makes it even more impressive. Jordan's numbers are just insane except that horrific 3-point percentage.