Chipper Jones: first ballot HOFer

It looks like the injury suffered on Tuesday night could require season ending surgery. He has already speculated that this season might be his last. If it does require surgery, I think he'll just hang'em up. While I was at the game last Saturday, they showed an interview with Bobby Cox asking him to compare Chipper to Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray. They wanted to know his opinion on who was the best switch hitter. Bobby didn't really answer the question, but he did say that Chipper was a first ballot hall of famer. I've always agreed with that statement, but some people say that he only has a chance at the hall since he's a switch hitter. Since it's possible that Chipper Jones' baseball career might be at an end, I thought I'd take a look at his numbers and see how he stacks up against other hall of famers. I tried to find players that played about the same number of games as Chipper and were generally considered "middle of the order" batters. My numbers research found 5 excellent candidates to compare. They each played 16 to 18 seasons and about 2100 to 2400 games. For comparison, Chipper is in his 17th season and has played in 2261 games.

First let's take a look at Chipper's career line. . .

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2261	9648	8142	1505	2490	493	37	436	1491	147	44	1404	1278	0.306	0.405	0.536	0.941

Those are some pretty solid numbers, almost 2500 hits, 1500 runs, almost 1500 RBI, almost 450 HRs and a career average of .306. So without further ado, let's get comparing.

Jim Rice
Hall of Fame vote: 76.44%
Jim Rice was considered one of the most feared hitters of his era. He's more remembered for his bat than his glove. Granted, it did take Big Jim 15 tries to get in, but his career was eventually deemed worthy of the hall.

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2089	9058	8225	1249	2452	373	79	382	1451	58	34	670	1423	0.298	0.352	0.502	0.854

A quick run down of the numbers shows that Chipper clobbers Rice in every category except triples. It's worth noting that they did play in different eras and that players numbers were not as gaudy back then as they are now, but if we just look at the numbers Chipper is better than Rice.

Eddie Matthews
Hall of Fame vote: 79.42%
Generally regarded as one of the greatest third basemen to play the game, Eddie Matthews makes for an excellent comparison with Chipper Jones. They both played third, they both played 17 seasons, and they both played for the Braves.

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2391	10101	8537	1509	2315	354	72	512	1453	68	39	1444	1487	0.271	0.376	0.509	0.885

Once again, Chipper comes out on top. Runs are a push and Matthews takes HRs and 3Bs, but everything else goes Chipper's way.

Duke Snider
Hall of Fame vote: 86.49%
Duke Snider is a Dodger legend and in addition to being a Hall of Fame lock, was named as one of baseball's 100 greatest players. So let's see how he stacks up.

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2143	8237	7161	1259	2116	358	85	407	1333	99	50	971	1237	0.295	0.38	0.54	0.919

Even though he played one more season than Chipper, he has fewer at bats because his career took went downhill when the Dodgers moved to LA and he was no longer an everyday starter. But if we just look at the numbers, Snider is only better in 3Bs and slugging percentage. So, chalk another one up for Chipper.

Mike Schmidt
Hall of Fame vote: 96.52%
Another one of the all time great third basemen, Mike Schmidt was arguably "the" power hitter of his era. In addition to his tremendous power, he won 10 gold gloves. Chipper has never won a gold glove at his position, but as far as fielding goes, Chipper and Schmidt's fielding percentages at third base are quite similar. As a statistician, I'm not a big fan of the gold glove, since it's more of a popularity contest and is awarded on perception than actual numbers.

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2404	10062	8352	1506	2234	408	59	548	1595	174	92	1507	1883	0.267	0.38	0.527	0.908

Runs are a push, and Schmidt easily takes HRs and RBIs. Once again Chipper concedes 3Bs, and for the first time someone has more SBs. Although none of these players were considered much of a threat on the base path. However, Chipper does take Hits, doubles, BB/SO ratio, Average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS. I expected Chipper to have the better average and on base percentage, but I was surprised to see that Chipper has the higher career slugging percentage. For the first time in this comparison, Chipper doesn't have the outright better stats. I really didn't even expect it to be so close, as Schmidt is one of the Hall's all-time greats. So the fact that Chipper matches up as well as he does, speaks volumes.

Mickey Mantle
Hall of Fame vote: 88.22%
Finally we get to the man that prompted this whole comparison. Mickey Mantle needs no introduction. He is one of the most famous players on baseball's most storied franchise. He's a switch hitter that played for 18 seasons, so he makes for a great comparison.

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2401	9909	8102	1676	2415	344	72	536	1509	153	38	1733	1710	0.298	0.421	0.557	0.977

When I first did the comparison, I had to do a double take. I was shocked to see how similar these two players were. Mantle gets the runs by a landslide, but he played for a team that had no trouble getting him home if he got on. Chipper takes the hits, but it's pretty close. Chipper takes doubles and Mickey takes triples. Mickey gets the HRs easily, but the RBIs are so close it's almost a push. Base stealing is essentially a push. Mickey has a lot more walks, but Chipper's walk to strikeout ratio is much better. Chipper's advantage in hits gives him the edge in average, but Mickey's tremendous number of walks gives him the edge in OBP. Mickey is the only player in this list to have a higher slugging percentage than Chipper and that also makes him the only player here with a higher OPS than Chipper. The edge in this comparison has to go to Mickey, but not by that much.

To sum it all up, of the 5 Hall of Fame players, Chipper's stats are easily better than 3, different enough to call one inconclusive and just slightly behind one of the most famous players in the history of the game. No matter how you look at it Chipper deserves a place in Cooperstown, and it's my opinion that he's good enough to make it on the first ballot. If I had to guess, I'd say he gets in with somewhere between 78 and 82% of the vote.

Earthquakes

The media sure seems obsessed lately with earthquakes. Anytime there is an earthquake in the states it makes the news, or if there is any earthquake >6 in magnitude in the world, we hear about it. I'm not used to seeing so much earthquake coverage, and I think it's started to create a little bit of paranoia. I decided to look at earthquake activity over the past 10 years. The data below represents earthquakes greater than 6.0 anywhere in the world. I grouped the data by 12 month intervals, so past year represents April 2009 to April 2010. So each interval starts and ends in April.

Cycle	Average Magnitude	>6	>7	>8
Past Year	6.37	187	14	2
Year +1	6.35	160	9	0
Year +2	6.40	196	18	1
Year +3	6.33	177	10	3
Year +4	6.37	118	10	0
Year +5	6.38	179	14	3
Year +6	6.35	168	11	1
Year +7	6.36	138	12	0
Year +8	6.37	131	11	1
Year +9	6.39	175	14	0

As you can see in the data, there are a whole lot of 6.0 earthquakes every year. On average one every 2 to 3 days. This past year doesn't even have the most of the past decade. We also haven't seen an unusual number with magnitudes greater than 7 or 8, and the average magnitude of all greater than 6 is once again fairly average. What we have seen is an increase in earthquake related casualties, but this is only a factor of where the earthquake strikes. The increased casualties has caused the increased paranoia and coverage. However, the world does not appear to be in any more danger from earthquakes than usual. Actually, that's not entirely true. As the population of the world grows and concentrations of people grow, the chances that an earthquake will hit a densely populated area also grows.

NBA Rookie of the Year

This year's NBA ROY award race has been a good one. Arguments have been made for the top three candidates: Evans, Curry, and Jennings. Evans has been the most consistent, Curry finished the strongest, and Jennings is a vital reason teams have to "Fear the Deer." Not to mention the Bucks are actually in the playoffs and his 55 point explosion at MSG. Of course, I decided to whip up a spreadsheet to make an unbiased determination. Since all the candidates play guard, I decided to take the top rookie seasons (statistically) from the past decade. I created a score based on the stats, the formula is pretty straightforward, and is pretty much just a summation of the stats.

Player	Year	Team	Wins	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3P%	FT%	RPG	APG	SPG	TO	PPG	Score
James	2003-04	Cavaliers	35	79	79	39.5	0.417	0.29	0.754	5.5	5.9	1.6	3.5	20.9	34.783
Evans	2009-10	Kings	25	72	72	37.2	0.458	0.255	0.748	5.3	5.8	1.5	3	20.1	34.083
Paul	2005-06	Hornets	38	78	78	36	0.43	0.282	0.847	5.1	7.8	2.2	2.3	16.1	33.577
Francis	1999-00	Rockets	34	77	77	36	0.445	0.345	0.786	5.3	6.6	1.5	4	18	32.128
Curry	2009-10	Warriors	26	80	77	36.2	0.462	0.437	0.885	4.5	5.9	1.9	3.1	17.5	32.052
Rose	2008-09	Bulls	41	81	80	37	0.475	0.222	0.788	3.9	6.3	0.8	2.5	16.8	29.755
Roy	2006-07	Trail Blazers	32	57	55	35.4	0.456	0.377	0.838	4.4	4	1.2	2	16.8	29.413
Jennings	2009-10	Bucks	46	82	82	32.6	0.371	0.374	0.817	3.4	5.7	1.3	2.4	15.5	28.186
Westbrook	2008-09	Thunder	23	82	65	32.6	0.398	0.271	0.815	4.9	5.3	1.3	3.3	15.3	27.952
Wade	2003-04	Heat	42	61	56	34.8	0.465	0.302	0.747	4	4.5	1.4	3.2	16.2	27.442

I don't think anyone is shocked that LeBron tops the list. However, I found it interesting how eerily similar his rookie stats are to Evans. I also found it interesting to see that Curry lined up right there with Stevie Franchise. Jennings, as expected, finished toward the bottom with the non-ROY winners (Westbrook, Wade). I have to give the nod to Evans, the numbers just don't lie, his LeBron-esque season is worth the ROY award. Curry should hold his head high as his rookie campaign was better than that of ROY award winners Roy and Rose. However, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Rose lead his team to the playoffs. On that note, Jennings should be proud that he was instrumental in leading his team into the playoffs even if his numbers fall short in this competition.

For fun, I added a couple other famous guard rookie seasons for comparison. Michael Jordan, Mitch Richmond, and Allen Iverson all won the rookie of the year award.

Jordan	1984-85	Bulls	38	82	82	38.3	0.515	0.173	0.845	6.5	5.9	2.39	3.55	28.2	44.039
Iverson	1996-97	76ers	22	76	74	40.1	0.416	0.341	0.702	4.1	7.5	2.1	4.4	23.5	37.177
Richmond	1988-89	Warriors	43	79	79	34.4	0.468	0.367	0.81	5.9	4.2	1.04	3.41	22	34.665

Both Jordan and Iverson score well ahead of LeBron and Richmond is just barely behind him. However, Richmond put those numbers up on a playoff team, so that makes it even more impressive. Jordan's numbers are just insane except that horrific 3-point percentage.